In January, Ethiopian authorities reported seizing thousands of rounds of ammunition allegedly sent by Eritrea to rebels in Ethiopia’s Amhara region. Eritrea denied these accusations, asserting that Ethiopia was fabricating incidents to justify potential military action. Eritrea’s Information Minister, Yemane Gebremeskel, accused the Ethiopian government of “floating false flags” in preparation for war. Subsequently, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki stated in a state media interview that Ethiopia had effectively declared war, while emphasizing that Eritrea does not seek conflict but is prepared to defend itself.
These developments reflect a relationship that has steadily deteriorated over the past two years. Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993 following decades of insurgency and conflict. The two states engaged in a violent border war from 1998 to 2000, which was followed by nearly two decades of tense stalemate. In 2018, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed signed a normalization agreement with Eritrea, a breakthrough that contributed to his receipt of the Nobel Peace Prize. However, this reconciliation has proven fragile.
The conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region from 2020 to 2022 further deepened regional divisions. Eritrean forces intervened alongside Ethiopian federal troops against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. Although a peace agreement was reached in November 2022, significant mistrust persists between Addis Ababa and Asmara. Analysts have observed indications that Eritrea is seeking closer ties with actors within Tigray, while Ethiopia has repositioned security forces along its northern border. In both Tigray and neighboring Amhara, shifting troop deployments and partial withdrawals have created security vacuums that could be exploited by armed groups.
In addition to political tensions, geography remains a central factor in the dispute. Ethiopia, with a population of approximately 120 million, is landlocked and lost direct access to the Red Sea following Eritrea’s independence. Ethiopia relies heavily on Djibouti for maritime trade, and Prime Minister Abiy has publicly argued that diversified sea access is a long-term strategic necessity. Discussions regarding potential arrangements involving Eritrean ports such as Assab have raised concerns in Asmara, where officials frequently accuse Ethiopia of harboring territorial ambitions. Although Abiy asserts that Ethiopia seeks dialogue rather than force, in a region with a history of rapid escalation, such rhetoric carries significant strategic implications.
The International Crisis Group has warned that renewed confrontation between Ethiopia and Eritrea, whether accidental or deliberate, would destabilize not only these two states but could also draw in neighboring countries and external powers. In an already volatile corridor connecting Africa and the Middle East, another war would intensify humanitarian pressures and regional rivalries.
While the current trajectory does not guarantee war, it highlights the fragility of the post-2018 normalization and the extent to which unresolved grievances continue to influence strategic calculations on both sides.
