Another election year means another year in the political spotlight for Pennsylvania, the perennial swing state whose elections could be feasibly won by either party. Pennsylvania will have relatively few contested primaries on May 19, but the decisions may matter come November.
Both the Democratic and Republican primaries for the state’s marquee governor’s race will be more of a formality than a meaningful determination of who the nominee will be. Incumbent Josh Shapiro is unopposed on the Democratic ballot, as is Treasurer Stacy Garrity on the Republican side. As the highest office on the ballot in Pennsylvania, both parties are hoping that their presumptive nominees will have down ballot effects on congressional and state legislature races.
Four Republican-held congressional seats are expected to be competitive in November. Those seats are currently held by Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mackenzie, Rob Bresnahan and Scott Perry. For Mackenzie and Bresnahan, November will be their first shot at reelection after narrowly defeating Democratic incumbents in 2024.
Fitzpatrick’s 1st Congressional District based in Bucks County has been a repeat Democratic target in election cycles, but the moderate five-term incumbent has defeated Democratic challenger after challenger by relatively comfortable margins for a district that supported the Democratic presidential nominee in every election where Fitzpatrick was also on the ballot.
Two Democrats are on the primary ballot to face Fitzpatrick—Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie and mathematician Lucia Simoneli. Harvie is the favorite to win the primary, having secured much support from Democratic politicians and the party establishment.
The 7th District held by Mackenzie is centered around the Lehigh Valley. In the Democratic primary to challenge Mackenzie, a competitive four-way contest exists between Bob Brooks, Ryan Crosswell, Lamont McClure and Carol Obando-Derstine.
Brooks, president of the state firefighters’ union, has secured endorsements from Democratic heavy hitters including Shapiro and Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), but the other candidates also have viable pathways to the nomination. Crosswell is a former federal prosecutor and has raked in impressive fundraising numbers rivalling all other candidates. McClure has a background in local government, retiring as Northampton County executive this year after an eight-year tenure and another decade of experience with county government. Obando-Derstine has served as a policy advisor and is endorsed by former Rep. Susan Wild whom Mackenzie defeated in 2024. All the candidates believe that their backgrounds give them an edge in a matchup against the Republican incumbent.
The Wilkes-Barre–Scranton centered 8th District held by Bresnahan lacks a contested Democratic primary. Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti has the field to herself.
Perry’s 10th District containing Harrisburg and York has become a prime target for Democrats after he narrowly won in 2024 against Democrat Janelle Stelson, a former news anchor with WGAL. Previous elections have seen the bombastic conservative incumbent’s vote share dwindle. Stelson is running again as the Democratic favorite with the backing of Shapiro and the Democratic establishment. She faces Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas who’s running to the moderate Stelson’s left.
There is also one open congressional seat in solidly Democratic Philadelphia’s 3rd District where the winner of the Democratic primary will be the presumptive winner in November without a Republican on the ballot. Incumbent Rep. Dwight Evans’ retirement resulted in a flurry of candidate declarations, but only four remain on the ballot.
State Senator Sharif Street is the favorite with backing of the Philadelphia Democratic Party, unions and Philadelphia politicians. Running close behind him are State Representative Chris Rabb and physician Ala Stanford. The fourth candidate is tax attorney Shaun Griffth. Rabb has the support of leftwing organizations and Philadelphia’s progressive politicians. Stanford has Evans’ endorsement. The winner of this primary could be considered an indicator of the direction of the Democratic Party.
