Entering the home stretch to the 2024 presidential election, Pennsylvania Democrats hold the weakest voter registration advantage compared to Pennsylvania Republicans in recent decades. The Democratic Party’s raw registration numbers saw a brief rise following Joe Biden’s exit from the presidential race in late July, and although this trend has continued, the number of Republicans has increased at a quicker rate. In other words, the Democrats’ percent share of registered voters in Pennsylvania is declining, and recent increases have not made up for losses accrued over the past four years.
Voter registration data is made publicly available by the Pennsylvania State Department, and the data stretches back to 1995. Within those 29 years, Democrats have never had as small of an advantage over Republicans as they do now. As of Sept. 16, Democrats made up approximately 44% of registered voters in the state, down from an all-time high in 2009 of 51.2%. Republicans constitute approximately 40.2% of voters, up from 36.9% in 2009. Unaffiliated and third-party voters have boosted their numbers significantly, from roughly 11.9% of voters in 2009 to 15.7% now.
Lara Putnam, a historian at the University of Pittsburgh who studies election data, in an interview with PA Spotlight, calls voter registration data “noisy,” as it is affected by factors beyond enthusiasm and voter engagement drives. Putnam explains that current registration losses are because of a correction from two past registration bumps. The first was during “the height of the labor-led, immediate post-New Deal prosperity in Pennsylvania, where being a good union member, being a good community member… meant registering as a Democrat,” Putnam said. The other came before and during the Obama administration, where traditionally low turnout spiked.
As Putnam explains, the first group largely remained registered as Democrats regardless of if they voted that way. Deaths in this generation have reduced their numbers. Obama-era voters have either moved or become inactive and are cleaned from the voter rolls. While these two trends form an explanation for Democratic registration to dip, they still do not necessarily mean that voting behavior in Pennsylvania has changed as much as the numbers might suggest.
With Pennsylvania’s Oct. 21 registration deadline quickly approaching, and the Nov. 5 election date looming, Republicans have nearly 40,000 more voters than November 2020. Democrats, on the other hand, are approximately 303,000 voters behind their 2020 numbers.
Across swing states during election season, several registration and get-out-the-vote organizations spring up. Each organization attempts to respond to a mix of current political data spread across registration trends, issue polling, voting history, census records and more. However, registration isn’t the only thing that parties care about, as activists and candidates are also focused on voter turnout.
In Philadelphia, voter turnout is crucial to the Democratic party. The city, dominated by Democrats, has so few registered Republicans that Democratic primaries typically determine the outcome of races in local elections. This makes Philadelphia and its surrounding suburbs essential to the Democratic party and means that low voter turnout can be devastating. This is especially concerning as in both the 2020 presidential election and 2022 Pennsylvania state elections, Philadelphia’s voter turnout was significantly lower than average turnout statewide.
“Philly is the engine of Democratic success in Pennsylvania, and when it isn’t performing, Democrats have lots to worry about,” veteran pollster at Muhlenberg College in Allentown, Pennsylvanis Chris Borick said to the Washington Post. “If I’m a Democrat right now, I’m worried about what’s happening in Philadelphia and its broader effect on the electoral math. It’s vexing for the party in a place where stakes couldn’t be higher.”
Like Putnam’s conclusion, critics cite an aging Philadelphia population and changing demographics across neighborhoods, which have weakened once stable voting blocs and lessened enthusiasm which has fueled voter participation.
Recent surges in independent voters might be attributed to a change in Pennsylvania made last year, where those eligible are prompted to register to vote at Department of Motor Vehicle (DMV) offices.. New voters add a level of unpredictability to voting trends.
“These are not votes in the bank for Democrats, but similarly, they’re not votes in the bank for Republicans,” Putnam said. “Those independent voters, I think, are really up for grabs.”
