Primary elections are now less than one month away, and in Pennsylvania, control of the U.S. House of Representatives is on the line.
Republicans currently control the House by a narrow margin, and in order to retain their majority in the November general elections, the May primary elections need to go their way. Every incumbent Republican member of Congress in Pennsylvania is running for reelection. However, some of these incumbents are facing serious challenges to their reelection bids, and Democrats are eyeing each chance to flip their seats.
Democrats are primarily targeting four Republican-held districts, and are hopeful about each one. First is Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District, currently held by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick. This district, just north of Philadelphia in Bucks County, is continually marked as one of the single most competitive districts in the entire nation by the Cook Partisan Voting Index. Every election, Democrats hope to topple Fitzpatrick, but every election, they have come up just short.
This year, Democrats are putting their hopes on Bob Harvie, the chair of the Bucks County Board of Commissioners. According to the Philadelphia Inquirer, Harvie has strong support and a decent chance to prevail over Fitzpatrick, though he first needs to win the Democratic primary against Lucia Simonelli. However, Fitzpatrick has massive name recognition, a significant amount of financial support, and a strong reputation as a moderate.
While a defeat of Fitzpatrick has eluded Democrats for nearly a decade, a freshman representative in Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District seems poised to lose his seat—if Democrats can choose the best candidate.
Rep. Ryan Mackenzie was labeled the most vulnerable Republican in the country by the political advisory company National Journal. Many Democrats are confident they can end Mackenzie’s time in Congress after just one term, shown by the crowded field of candidates in the Democratic primary. All candidates boast an impressive list of endorsements, though perhaps none more so than firefighter Bob Brooks, who has the backing of Gov. Josh Shapiro and many state and federal legislators. Carol Obando-Derstine has the endorsement of former Rep. Susan Wild, whom Mackenzie defeated in 2024. Former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell has raised the most money of all the Democratic candidates. Lamont McClure, the former Northampton County executive, rounds out the list of candidates.
The outcome of the primary election, and which of these four Democrats is selected to take on Mackenzie, will have a major impact on Democrats’ chances of flipping the 7th Congressional District back to blue.
Like with the 7th District, Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District features a vulnerable first-term Republican incumbent. However, up in Northeast Pennsylvania, Democrats have rallied around a single candidate. The Democrat is Paige Cognetti, the mayor of Scranton. She will face Rep. Rob Bresnahan, who is not quite as vulnerable as Rep. Mackenzie. Bresnahan is a moderately pro-union Republican, and has won the backing of several local labor unions.
Working against Bresnahan, though, is a stock-trading controversy. Bresnahan has traded hundreds of stocks since taking office, gaining him millions of dollars. Bresnahan has vehemently denied accusations of insider trading, though his trading of Medicaid-related stocks during a time when that was a hot-button issue raised alarms for many. According to WOLF-TV in Wilkes-Barre, Cognetti is making Congressional stock trading a key component of her bid to defeat Bresnahan.
The final competitive district held by a Republican is the one attracting the most attention. Rep. Scott Perry, who once chaired the far-right House Freedom Caucus, represents Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District. Perry is not facing significant Republican challengers in the primary election. However, he has lost popularity within the district for his hard-line stances. A group called “Republicans Against Perry” formed in 2025, and Democrats seek to capitalize on this intra-party dissent to capture the Republican-leaning district in central Pennsylvania. The leading Democrat in the primary election is Janelle Stelson, a former news anchor who narrowly lost to Perry in the 2024 election.
If Democrats can flip these four seats, they will be all but assured to retake the majority in the general election. The primary elections come first, however, and while those usually see lower turnout, they will have an enormous effect on the results in November.
