One of the most important elections in Pennsylvania in 2026 is coming into form. Ten months before the election, which could have national implications, the candidates appear to be set for the gubernatorial election.
The Democratic candidate will be incumbent Gov. Josh Shapiro, who announced his reelection campaign in early January. Shapiro was elected governor in 2022. Before that, he was the state Attorney General in the Tom Wolf administration.
Pennsylvania Republicans are coalescing around state Treasurer Stacy Garrity. A former colonel in the U.S. Army and manufacturing industry CEO, Garrity was first elected Treasurer in 2020. In her successful 2024 reelection, she won the highest number of votes of any candidate for state office in Pennsylvania history.
While additional candidates may enter the race at any point until March, it appears exceedingly unlikely anyone will challenge Shapiro or Garrity in the May primary elections.
As with his 2022 campaign, Shapiro enjoys near-universal approval from fellow Democrats. His statewide approval ratings have consistently been high throughout his first term as governor. At times, he has reached 60% approval ratings.
Already a nationally-recognized figure prior to 2024, Shapiro became a household name when he was a finalist for Kamala Harris’s Vice Presidential candidate in the 2024 presidential election. Harris ultimately chose Minnesota governor Tim Walz over Shapiro, but Pennsylvania’s important role as a swing state led to him appearing with Harris multiple times over the course of the campaign.
The broad backing of Garrity by state Republicans is a welcome sign for the current Treasurer. The GOP nominee for governor in 2022 was state Sen. Doug Mastriano, a conservative firebrand who earned the endorsement of Donald Trump but made few other friends in the Republican Party. Shapiro ended up defeating Mastriano by a wide margin, and many state Republicans privately worried Mastriano would try again in 2026.
Instead, Mastriano declined to run, as did nearly all other elected Republicans in Pennsylvania. As Treasurer, Garrity championed an initiative to return unclaimed property to Pennsylvanians without them needing to file claims. Checks dispersed to Pennsylvanians have totaled hundreds of millions of dollars.
Though polling for this election is scant at this early stage, it is expected that Garrity will pose a much tougher challenge to Shapiro than Mastriano did. Whoever wins will have to contend with a state government more evenly divided than any other state in the nation. Shapiro’s term as governor in particular has been defined by negotiations between a Democratic state House of Representatives and a Republican state Senate.
Supporters of Shapiro highlight his ability to work across the aisle and create accomplishments that benefit all Pennsylvanians.
Garrity, however, is emphasizing an underlying factor influencing this entire race: Shapiro’s ambitions for higher office.
It is widely reported he is preparing to run for President in 2028. He has been expanding his national profile by going on national media and popular talk shows, and he is currently beginning a national book tour promoting his new memoir, both common tactics employed by likely presidential candidates.
Per Politico and York Dispatch, while Shapiro has confirmed nothing, Garrity and her fellow Republicans are acting as if Shapiro has already declared his intention to run for President. They are accusing him of caring more about himself and his personal goals than caring about the people of Pennsylvania. His reelection campaign, they say, is nothing more than a springboard for his jump to presidential candidate.
If Shapiro is able to win in Pennsylvania again, he would be very well positioned to jump into the 2028 field of Democratic contenders for President. If he loses this November, it could spell the end of his still-young political career.
The primary elections will be held May 19, and the general elections will be held Nov. 3. In addition to the gubernatorial election, elections for Pennsylvania’s state Senate and House of Representatives will be held in November. The outcomes of these elections will be a major factor in what the next governor, Shapiro or Garrity, will be able to do. All 17 representatives from Pennsylvania in the United States House of Representatives will also be up for reelection, as part of the first major election season of President Trump’s second term.
