On Monday, April 10, Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. announced that he will be running for re-election in 2024, seeking a fourth term. This decision marks the beginning of a likely competitive and expensive 2024 PA Senate race.
“Folks, I’m running for re-election,” Casey wrote on Twitter. “There’s still more work to do to cut through the gridlock, stand up to powerful special interests, and make the lives of hardworking Pennsylvanians easier. The map is back, and I’m not done yet.”
Casey, who recently turned 63, is the longest-serving Democratic Senator in Commonwealth history. He may be one of the most well-known politicians in the state, also helped by his father, Bob Casey Sr., who served as a two-term governor, a member of the state senate and as the PA Auditor General. Casey Sr. is also recognized for his pro-life agenda as governor challenged in the landmark Supreme Court case Planned Parenthood v. Casey. As a result of the Casey family’s history and political success in the Commonwealth, Democrats likely have more confidence surrounding the fate of their majority in the Senate.
Incumbency gives one a valuable political advantage. First, these individuals have name recognition among their constituents, and Casey Jr. has benefitted from this for years. Next, those running for re-election may have better access to funding resources to promote their campaign. This has been extremely important in recent years, exemplified by the 2022 Senate race between Dr. Mehmet Oz and John Fetterman, as it was the most expensive in the country. The spending reached a combined $312 million, according to OpenSecrets. Since PA is a crucial swing state, it is good news for Democrats that Casey Jr. is pursuing another term.
Although it appears that Casey Jr. has the upper hand, Republicans will be determined to flip his seat. In turn, they may support Dave McCormick as the party nominee, as he may be their strongest candidate option. He lost the GOP nomination in the 2022 Senate race to Oz by just under a slim 1,000 votes, according to The Associated Press.
In addition, McCormick has recently released a book and has spoken to media outlets and at political events, including the Pennsylvania Leadership Conference in Harrisburg, which signals that he is preparing to launch a campaign.
“I do think that for Republicans to win, and for us to win in Pennsylvania and for us to win across the nation, I think we need to be really systematic about the work we do to increase voter registration and the ability to get Republicans out there for mail-in balloting,” McCormick said to Politico. “And as I say in the book, ‘Superpower in Peril,’ I think we need to put a positive vision forward.”
However, 2022 GOP gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano, who lost in a landslide to Josh Shapiro, has also hinted at a 2024 Senate run, which could create some turbulence within the Republican Party as they aim to regain control of the Senate after the disappointing midterm elections.
“We’ve seen people in the past, other Republican gubernatorial candidates, they rise and they disappear when they lose. Why?” Mastriano said in a rare sit-down interview with Politico. “You have people that love you and support you.”
However, compared to Mastriano, McCormick represents a more moderate Republican and has a better chance of appealing to swing voters. The GOP will likely need to find a middle-ground candidate within the party, and McCormick could fit this role. However, a fiery Republican primary may also help Democrats in the general election.
Although Casey Jr. appears to have a considerable advantage over any Republican candidate for the 2024 Senate race, there is no question that it will be a heated election that draws much national attention.
