The string of political texts that campaign offices sent to Pennsylvanians during the 2024 elections was not unwarranted, as in true swing state fashion, the commonwealth flipped red across the majority of elections at the national and state level.
In the presidential election, President-elect Donald Trump had a margin of nearly two percentage points, the Associated Press data shows, as opposed to 2020, when current President Joe Biden won the state by just over 1%.
The presidential election was indicative of a “red wave” all over the state. The Associated Press called the senate race between Democratic incumbent Bob Casey and Republican Dave McCormick in McCormick’s favor, flippin the seat that Casey and the Democratic party have held since 2007.
The senate race is headed for a recount. Pennsylvania Secretary of the Commonwealth Al Schmidt on Wednesday announced an automatic recount for the race. Under Pennsylvania’s election code, when the margin of any race is within 0.5%, the 67 counties must recount the votes. McCormick currently leads by less than 30,000 votes, CNN reported, but he did attend new senator orientation in Washington, D.C.
In the House of Representatives, incumbent Republican Scott Perry held onto his seat that he’s held since 2013. The race came as a shock to Democrats, as candidate Janelle Steltson, a former news anchor, was projected to win in a poll only one month before the race.
On the state level, Democrats were able to keep their one-vote majority in the state house, keeping a split state legislature led by Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro. The final state house race called was state Rep. Frank Burns in rural Cambria, who beat Republican Amy Bradley.
In the state Senate, a redrawn district allowed Democrat Patty Kim, formerly a state representative, to be elected to the senate in a Dauphin County District. The district was redrawn in 2022. The seat will not change the party lines in the chamber, however, after Republican Joe Picozzi won a race over incumbent Democratic Sen. Jimmy Dillon in Philadelphia.
The state attorney general’s office also flipped. Democrat Michelle Henry did not run for reelection, and Republican Dave Sunday beat Democratic candidate Eugene DePasquale. Formerly, Sunday was the York County district attorney.
Pennsylvania’s geography uniquely positions it for a swing state. Urban areas like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh commonly vote blue, while rural counties commonly vote red. Shifting demographics and population growth in central and eastern counties leads to multiple unknowns when predicting races in the state.
Next year will be an off-year election. On Nov. 4, 2025, the state supreme court and intermediate appellate courts will be on the ballot. Democrats currently have a 5-2 majority in the state supreme court.
Also on the ballot will be several local government elections. Pittsburgh and Harrisburg mayoral races will be run, while Philadelphia will vote on its district attorney, an office currently held by Democrat Larry Krasner.
