Professor of Political Science E. Fletcher McClellan has seen many different Pennsylvania political landscapes throughout his more than 40 year tenure as a professor at Elizabethtown College. One thing he doesn’t believe he’ll ever see is the state’s role in the national political landscape declining.
“I think we’ll always be close to ground zero for national elections,” McClellan said. “There are probably less than 10 swing states in the country, and we’re definitely a purple state. Regardless of where we are population wise or anything else, we’re close to the only game in town.”
McClellan described Pa. as a “microcosm” of the nation, with its divided legislature (featuring a Democratic House and Governor and a Republican Senate), reflecting an evenly split U.S. House delegation and U.S. Senate seats which can go either way.
Pa. has always been in flux and has suffered through historic budget disputes. Right now, the state still hasn’t passed key parts of the budget. McClellan said many issues are always at the forefront of the state legislature, like Pa.’s strong gun culture, abortion debates and labor versus business debates.
“You know, there’s change, but I see a lot of continuity now,” McClellan said. “Change may be in the offing with the result of the next legislative elections.”
McClellan believes Democrats may have a decent chance to hold a majority in the state Senate with newly drawn districts, a position the party hasn’t held in 30 years. If they gain the Senate, the state will have “united government,” with the House, Senate and governor’s office. However, Gov. Josh Shapiro has broken with his party recently on one big ticket item—school vouchers, which would pay for students in the poorest 100 public schools to attend private school free of charge.
“The horses left the barn a long time ago [on school choice],” McClellan said. “Pennsylvania has a lot of school choice already with tax credits and charter schools that we subsidize, homeschool cyber schools, we’re pretty far down that road. Maybe the third rail you cannot touch is the direct support for the vouchers for the parents.”
The Democrat Party typically does not support vouchers, while Republicans, particularly state Senate leaders, strongly support them. Shapiro at first promised to include them in this year’s budget, but Senate leaders say he reneged on his deal because he couldn’t get state House leaders to back him. The controversy came to light of a recent Commonwealth Court decision declaring Pennsylvania’s method of school funding unconstitutional.
“Shapiro more or less indicated he wanted to punt on that and nothing would happen this year, which is fine because it’s a big issue,” McClellan said. “I don’t know what his plan is. In some states, they’ve had these sorts of court mandated cases, and it’s taken years and even decades to fix an education formula.”
Another issue facing the legislature is minimum wage. Every state bordering Pa. has a higher minimum wage, and multiple bills were introduced in the state house this session to raise it. McClellan believes this may result in an increased effort to strengthen labor power, saying former Democratic Governor Tom Wolf and Republicans often compromised on budgets and other bills. While compromise is possible between Shapiro and the legislature, there are many areas where the parties butt heads.
“Some areas they will never agree on like abortion and public education, so that may be the parameters going forward,” he said.
One outstanding issue is the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, often referred to by its acronym, RGGI. The program would be a cooperative effort between 11 states to reduce greenhouse gasses. McClellan believes courts may strike down the initiative if it isn’t put in place by legislation and said Shapiro hasn’t provided much support for the initiative.
“What the state is going to do about climate change is going to be a big question,” McClellan said.
As eyes across the nation turn to Pa., one set of Pennsylvanian eyes may be turning to the nation.
“I think Shapiro will run again in 2026 and get a second term, but he seems to be very ambitious towards the presidency,” McClellan said. “He’s already visited New Hampshire. He’s pretty popular and seems to want to make overtures to conservatives.”
McClellan said Shapiro has seemingly picked issues where there is consensus.
As Pennsylvanians, specifically college students, look to the future, there’s one issue McClellan thinks should be at the forefront of everyone’s mind—the Supreme Court.
“It changes very quickly,” McClellan said. “We’ve seen big issues come up in recent years, and I definitely think it’s something that should be on everyone’s mind as they think about politics.”
