Polling for the midterm elections in Pennsylvania continues to grow closer. For the U.S. Senate race, Democrat John Fetterman has a 3% edge over Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz in a poll by FiveThirtyEight. For governor, Democrat Josh Shapiro leads Republican Doug Mastriano by almost 10% as of Oct. 21.
Many expect Shapiro to win the gubernatorial race—even though his lead is narrowing. The open Senate seat has been too close to predict.
According to a Penn Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies, independents in battleground states, such as Pennsylvania, prefer a Republican-controlled House of Representatives by six points. However, this has motivated those running for office to direct their attention to the parts of the state that have the most swing voters.
Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery counties, also known as Pennsylvania’s “collar counties,” are some of the most populated areas in the state and have many undecided voters. They serve as a buffer between the rural, more central parts of the state that tend to be conservative and the urban Democratic strongholds. Over 20% of the votes in the 2020 presidential race in Pennsylvania were from the four counties. Most notably, experts say that women in these Philadelphia suburbs are the “decisive vote” that will determine the outcome of the election.
Candidates have begun to focus on these voters in response to the tightening polls. Fetterman recently held a rally with Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar in Chester County. He has attempted to draw in a crowd by hosting events with popular political figures as Oz has done throughout the campaign trail.
However, many voters in these areas, specifically women, are worried about one issue: abortion.
“We know in the more urban centers, Democrats have an advantage. The key question there for Democrats will be the turnout and the support they get among minority communities,” Director of the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College Berwood Yost told CNN. “But in the suburbs, it’s really going to be an interesting push-pull between these concerns voters have about the economy and inflation and then concerns about abortion rights.”
Fetterman has strongly asserted his opinion regarding abortion—especially after the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade. He has emphasized that in office, he plans to support the Women’s Health Protection Act, which would create legal protection for abortion.
“Women are the reason we can win,” Fetterman said at a rally in September. “Let me say that again. Women are the reason we win. Don’t piss women off.”
On the other hand, Oz said that he would not support federal legislation codifying Roe. “It should be up to the states,” he explained in an interview with NBC.
For the gubernatorial race, Mastriano has taken a firm stance on abortion, repeatedly calling for a complete ban on the practice. Shapiro’s perspective reflects Fetterman’s.
Recent polls show Mastriano gaining more momentum with independent voters compared to Shapiro. For the Senate election, Fetterman has more support from women than Oz.
Independents and undecided women may determine the election, and all candidates are likely to increase their campaigning in the Pennsylvania counties with the most swing voters leading up to election day.
