In the upcoming elections this November, one of Pennsylvania’s Senate seats is up for grabs between Democratic incumbent Bob Casey and challenger Dave McCormick. Although current polling indicates that this election is not going to be as close as the last Senate race between John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz, with Casey maintaining 45 percent support to McCormick’s 42 percent, there are still more than six months to go until the November election and a lot can change between now and then. Who are these candidates? Why does Bob Casey have such a commanding lead in the race? And why is this race so important?
Senator Casey was first elected to office in 2006 and is running for his fourth term. Prior to being elected senator, Bob Casey served in statewide elected positions as State Treasurer and Auditor General and is the son of our former governor, Robert Casey Senior, who served as Governor of Pennsylvania from 1987 to 1995. The Casey family dynasty can trace its roots back to Northeast Pennsylvania, where Senator Casey’s grandfather worked as a coal miner in the Scranton area until he was able to attend Fordham Law School. Casey’s father, Robert Casey Sr. showed determination and grit, making a three-time losing run for Governor of Pennsylvania before winning in two consecutive terms that left him one of the most popular governors in state history. Senator Casey has continued this tradition, turning a loss in his initial election bid for Governor into a successful run for the Senate in 2006. Senator Casey became the first Democrat in state history to be elected to three consecutive terms and is well known for his down-to-earth attitude and centrist political positions. Senator Casey captured statewide support in his previous three elections, winning with 58, 53, and 55 percent of the vote each time.
His challenger, Dave McCormick is a hedge fund manager who was appointed as Under Secretary for the Treasury and International Affairs, Deputy National Security Advisor for International Economic Affairs and Under Secretary of Commerce for Industry and Security in the President George W. Bush administration. McCormick is a seventh generation Pennsylvanian and is the son of the former President of Bloomsburg University. He attended West Point University and graduated in 1987 before enlisting in the U.S. Army as a paratrooper who served in the first Gulf War in 1991. He was the CEO of Bridgewater Associates, a hedge fund investment firm, and lived in Westport Connecticut from 2009 to 2022 until he resigned to run for U.S. Senate seat previously held by Pat Toomey. He would narrowly lose to Mehmet Oz, a Trump endorsed candidate, by less than 1,000 votes statewide. He is now running unopposed in the 2024 Republican primary and is the presumed challenger to take on Senator Casey in the fall.
Casey’s centrist support has proven very popular with independent voters, a key demographic in Pennsylvania politics. Independent voters traditionally have been very supportive of Casey and according to the Hill, independent voters favor Casey 42 percent over McCormick’s percent, with another 29 percent undecided. In addition, almost 10 percent of Pennsylvania’s Trump supporters intend to vote for Casey in the fall according to the Hill, which once again signals the cross-platform strength of incumbent Senator Casey in Pennsylvania. McCormick will have a tough hill to climb with independent voters ahead of the general election in November. Currently, the U.S. Senate is almost evenly split with Democrats controlling 51 seats and Republicans 49 seats, which hasn’t left much room for candidates to maneuver in this year’s Senate elections. If Democrats want to maintain their majority in the Senate, it will be critical for them to retain Senator Casey as one of Pennsylvania’s two Democratic Senators. The Republicans likewise are eyeing up Senator Casey’s seat as a way to achieve a majority in the Senate which could give them control over both houses of Congress and allow them enact their agenda even if Biden retains the White House. This could mean blocking Biden’s judicial nominees, enacting a national abortion ban, more tax cuts for the wealthy and possible cuts to social security and medicare. Much is at stake in the upcoming election cycle and it is certainly reason enough to get out and vote.
This will be my last Pennsylvania Politics article for the Etownian and I hope that my column has made a difference in our campus political discourse. Remember to stay engaged in our national, state and local politics. Above all, get out and vote to make your voice heard and be the one who helps keep our democracy strong and resilient for the next generation.
