Recently, tensions between Russia and Ukraine have been rising due to the presence of Russian soldiers at the border of the two countries. At least 100,000 soldiers have gathered there, despite warnings from the U.S. and several European countries. U.S. officials fear that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could happen as soon as a couple months from now.
Russia and Ukraine have a long history of conflict. Russian president Vladimir Putin claims that Russians and Ukrainians are one people, which Ukrainians soundly reject. Ukraine has continuously rejected Russian control and instead made efforts to join the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Putin is against NATO influence and balks at the possibility of NATO bases in Ukraine.
In 2014, the Ukrainian public successfully toppled pro-Russia president Viktor Yanukovych after months of protests. Yanukovych had suspended talks in late 2013 about a landmark political and trade deal between Ukraine and the EU, which ignited often violent protests in the capital Kyiv.
However, Putin retaliated severely. In March 2014, he annexed the southeastern Ukrainian territory Crimea under the excuse that he was defending the interests of the territory’s Russian-speaking citizen. Russia completed the annexation in a few days after thousands of soldiers poured into the territory. The Crimean Peninsula is now connected to mainland Russia via road bridge, further solidifying its occupation. Ukraine and most of the world declared the annexation as illegitimate.
That same year Russian-backed separatists took control of two of Ukraine’s regions that border Russia, Donetsk and Luhansk. The separatists instituted an authoritarian regime complete with the death penalty and concentration camps where political dissidents were tortured and executed.
These conflicts in 2014 killed a reported 13,000 people and displaced millions.Violence could happen again on an even larger scale concerningly soon.
However, Putin denies that Russia is planning on invading Ukraine claiming that the troop movements that the U.S. and NATO called “unusual” along the border and Crimea are no cause for concern.
On the other hand, Ukrainians are ready to fight if the conflict escalates, with the country being stronger militarily and morally than in 2014. Putin is also threatened by NATO’s support of Ukraine and wants legal agreements that would prevent further NATO expansion towards Russia’s borders. As for the timing, it is theorized that Putin wants to boost his dwindling approval rates (which tanked due to economic hardships caused by the COVID-19 pandemic) by reigniting a conflict and increasing communication with the West.
Ukraine argues that it does not need Moscow’s approval to build closer ties with NATO. It also accuses its neighbor of purposely provoking the current conflict. NATO warns that an invasion will have severe consequences for Russia including sanctions and political restrictions. However, Ukraine is still not a NATO member, so it does not have guaranteed security measures.
U.S. President Joe Biden has been unclear of what the U.S.’s response would be if Russia invaded Ukraine. He told Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky that the U.S. “will respond decisively if Russia further invades Ukraine.” However, he then claimed that a “minor incursion” on Russia’s part would elicit a more restrained response than a full-scale invasion while implying that Western nations are not on the same page about how to respond if such an incursion were to take place.
The White House quickly clarified that any movement of Russian troops into Ukrainian territory “will be met with a swift, severe and united response from the United States and our Allies.”
