Following the 2020 general election, the Campaign 2020 Post-Mortem was held via Zoom to discuss the 2020 election season and the upcoming transfer of power. Speakers included the Dean of the School of Public Service Dr. April Kelly-Woessner, Dr. E. Fletcher McClellan and Dr. Oya Dursun-Ozkanca.
The post-election event is a tradition at Elizabethtown College and hosted by faculty in the political science department. Within the opening remarks, McClellan emphasized on how the election is ongoing as votes are being continued and legal challenges are being put forth by President Donald Trump and the Republican Party. The webinar then began with a presentation, which provided an overview of the election, from McClellan.
“I’m fairly confident that Joe Biden will be the next president of the United States,” McClellan said.
McClellan estimated Biden would win 321 to 279 Electoral College votes.
Trump is the first incumbent president to lose a re-election bid since George H.W. Bush in 1992. Notably, Biden received the most votes for president of any candidate in American history.
McClellan predicted Republicans will retain their control in the U.S. Senate; however, Democrats will likely control the U.S. House of Representatives, albeit with a reduced majority.
The general election turnout had 160 million voters, or 66.5 percent of eligible voters, which McClellan described as a record in modern day politics. Turnout was likely increased by a desire for the government to do more and overall dissatisfaction during the Trump presidency.
While Biden won independents, moderates and suburban voters, voters who decided later went for Trump. McClellan also emphasized on how voters aged 65 and older were expected to vote for Biden; however, Trump ultimately won that demographic.
Kelly-Woessner presented after McClellan and discussed the stress following the 2020 general election. She noted how some scholars have described the stress as Post-Election Stress Disorder, Post-Trump Stress Disorder and President Trump Stress Disorder, which had led to debate over the appropriateness of the terms, as well as the implication that only those on the left wing are stressed following the election.
As noted by Kelly-Woessner, both Democrats and Republicans have reported increased stress levels. Following the 2016 general election, 52 percent of U.S. adults described the election as a somewhat significant to a very significant source of stress. In 2020, 68 percent of U.S. adults reported increased stress levels following the general election.
Kelly-Woessner noted how expressive reporting can signal one’s stress levels to a political party. Furthermore, she argued that perceived threat and group identity can be used to predict political behavior, especially in regard to stress.
Furthermore, she theorized that the stress remains following the 2020 general election as Trump has yet to concede, speculation about a peaceful transfer of power and stress from the upcoming holiday season and pandemic.
In the final presentation, Dursun-Ozkanca spoke on the international policy implications of the election.
She noted how international issues did not “fare heavily” when voters were deciding on who to vote for, largely due to mounting domestic issues. Although, of the international issues, Dursun-Ozkanca noted the changing distribution of power internationally, global interdependence and international law and norms.
In her presentation, Dursun-Ozkanca discussed how Trump was more focused on America First, whereas Biden was focused on U.S. leadership, values and interest, repairment of alliance and restoration of partnerships, the “existential threat” of climate change, interest in re-entering the Iran Nuclear Deal, counterbalancing a “rising China” and a tough stance on Russia, all while extending the new START Treaty.
Following closing remarks, Kelly-Woessner, McClellan and Dursun-Ozkanca answered attendees’ questions on pollsters, Trump and Biden.
