If Pennsylvania has suddenly become a presidential battleground state, we can say that Elizabethtown College was the place where change began.
With President Obama’s lead over Governor Mitt Romney in the state dwindling from double-digits in September to less than five points in the latest polls, Republicans sense an opportunity to capture a state which has voted Democratic in the last five presidential elections.
Last week’s visit to Leffler Chapel and Performance Center by Ann Romney was the first sign of Republican optimism. The second was vice-presidential candidate Paul Ryan’s recent swing through the western part of the state. While these appearances may be viewed as feints or probes, they could be the beginning of a major Romney push to claim the Commonwealth’s 20 electoral votes.
What’s missing are campaign stops by Romney himself and heavy television advertising by his campaign and super-PACs. With the election less than two weeks away, a surge of Republican activity in the Keystone State may appear unlikely. However, the conditions for a Romney rally are present.
First, Romney’s strong showing in the presidential debates this month has tightened the race and made previously unthinkable moves thinkable. Not only do the national polls show a virtual dead-heat, but Romney has pulled ahead in expensive battleground states Florida and North Carolina and may be ready to deploy his resources elsewhere.
Second, the Obama campaign has attempted to construct a political firewall in the swing states of Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada that, when added to the states he is virtually guaranteed of winning, will secure the decisive 270 electoral votes needed for re-election. If this is the case, Romney needs to open up another front quickly in a state such as Pennsylvania that does not allow early voting.
Third, Romney’s critique of Obama’s performance in managing the U.S. economy is having a powerful impact on the electorate, helping offset the President’s win in the second presidential debate. Contrary to the trend in most of the battleground states, unemployment in Pennsylvania has risen in each of the last four months and is presently higher than the national average.
Fourth, Pennsylvania has always been a tempting target for Republicans, with its large elderly population, socially conservative “Reagan Democrats” in the northeast and west, and reliable base in central Pennsylvania. The new natural gas economy, spurred by the controversial exploration of Marcellus Shale, is probably a plus for the GOP, which is regarded as the fossil fuel party.
Even if the Romney campaign makes a last-minute play, the odds of a Republican victory in Pennsylvania remain steep. There are one million more registered Democrats than Republicans in the state, and Obama won by ten percentage points over John McCain four years ago. That is a lot of ground to make up.
In addition, Obama may hold an advantage over Romney among white suburban women, identified by both campaigns as the key swing group nationally. Last week’s debate gave the President the opportunity to showcase his pro-choice views and support of pay equity, to which Romney responded, illogically, that he reviewed “binders full of women” when he appointed cabinet officials in Massachusetts.
Regardless of whether Romney gets serious about Pennsylvania, this election is going to be a cliff-hanger. Though the President characterizes Romney’s plans as “sketchy,” voters give the edge on fixing the economy to the Republican. Despite troubling events in Libya and the rest of the Middle East, the slayer of Osama bin Laden has the proven advantage in foreign policy.
Obama has cast doubt on Romney’s credibility (he’s suffering from “Romnesia,” the President says) and concern for regular folks, but the effectiveness of the President’s negative campaign leaves him open to Romney’s charges that Obama is desperate.
Barring unforeseen circumstances, the last important campaign event will be the October unemployment report that will be issued on Friday, Nov. 2. That report could determine for undecided voters whether the President deserves four more years, or whether it is time for a change.
Cliché it may be, but turnout is ultimately the key to deciding a close election. How ironic would it be that turnout in the home of one of the nation’s most severe voter ID laws – now suspended, its effects uncertain – decides the fate of the nation?