Democrats are feeling confident going into November’s elections with their eyes focused on winning their first governing trifecta in Harrisburg in decades, and that goal may run through a pair of lawmakers who pulled off surprise victories in special elections.
To achieve a governing trifecta, Pennsylvania Democrats need Gov. Josh Shapiro to win reelection (an almost certainty given the dynamics of that race), hold onto their slim two-seat majority in the state House and pick up two seats in the state Senate. Accomplishing all these would give the party its first trifecta since a brief one-year period in 1993.
The race for the state House is on a knife’s edge and both Democrats and Republicans are eying pickup opportunities at either end of the state, but one district is notable—the 12th district in Butler County. Republican former Rep. Stephenie Scialabba represented this district until resigning in March.
A special election in August saw a surprise 98-vote victory for Brandon Dukes, the Democratic candidate, making him the first Democrat to represent the 12th district since former Rep. Patricia Carone switched parties in 1993. By comparison, Scialabba won her two general election races by well over 20 points. In the 2024 presidential election, President Donald Trump won the district by 18 points.
Dukes’ time in Harrisburg will be short before he has to face the same candidate, Republican Scott Timko, again in November. His time may end in January if his victory turns out to be a fluke. Special elections often produce results contrary to expectations due to low voter turnout. The number of votes in the special election Dukes won was less than half the number cast when Scialabba was reelected in 2024.
However, Democrats are hopeful and believe Dukes’ victory bodes well for their prospects in the midterms, a similar narrative was heard from party politicians when another special election progeny emerged in Lancaster County last year.
Then mayor of East Petersburg, James Malone, was nominated by the Democratic Party to run against Republican county commissioner Josh Parson to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of former state Sen. Ryan Aument.
Aument was last reelected unopposed in 2022 to his seat in the 36th district, which comprises the northwestern corner of Lancaster County, including Elizabethtown. Malone managed to pull off a 526-vote victory, a shocking result in an area Trump won by 15 points with a reputation as a Republican stronghold.
In Malone’s victory, Democrats saw a greater opportunity to finally wrest control of the state Senate from Republicans after 33 years. By usurping a previously Republican seat, Malone put Democrats one seat closer to control of the state Senate. But like Dukes, the true question is whether Malone can hold on to the seat in November.
One thing to Malone’s benefit may be the greater amount of time he has been in office compared to Dukes, who has only been in office for a month. Malone has had over a year in office to prove himself as a legislator and constituent advocate.
Even then, Malone’s reelection campaign against Republican state Rep. Tom Jones is one of the most contested and closely watched in the state. One poll gives Jones a slight edge over Malone, but it falls with the margin of error with neither candidate with a majority of support, putting the race at a dead heat.
Whether Dukes and/or Malone can pull off general election wins on Nov. 3 will strengthen Democrats morale and power in Harrisburg, something that has frequently eluded the party in recent election cycles.
